Don’t Worry About How an Election Will Affect Your Portfolio
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I got a chuckle out of a story today in the Wall Street Journal. And I said to myself, you know, I’m going to have to dust off going to have to dust off my crystal ball. Yeah, from time to time, I dust it off and I bring it out and I’ll explain that in a bit. But there is a story today talking about, you know, they’re interviewing financial advisors around the country and these financial advisors are, man, they’re having a difficult time with their clients, taxes, tariffs.
debt, lions and tigers and bears. Oh, my clients are worried because of the election that’s coming up. What might happen next? And you know what I thought of? Again, how my twisted mind works. I instantly was transported to the movie Moonstruck. Do you remember when Johnny Comediani was, he was at the Grand Ticino with Loretta and he’s going to ask her to marry him. And then there was that scene where the
The professor from NYU gets a drink thrown in his face and he’s, John, he says, man who can’t control his women is funny. Yeah, I get a kick out of these financial advisors out there that obviously are not doing a very good job in explaining to them what their portfolios are for and how they’re supposed to work. And if you’ve, they’ve got the clients that are freaking out over an election, you’re obviously doing something wrong.
You obviously have to do a much better job in educating your clients and how the world works. Let’s go back in time. Let’s go back to Donald Trump versus Hillary Clinton. I get up very early in the morning. I was tired. I went to bed. Again, to me, it was a toss up. Wasn’t sure who was going to win. I kind of thought Hillary was going to end up winning in the end. Does my phone start?
buzzing in the middle of the night. Chris, Chris, we need you to come on. We need you to come on tomorrow morning. Trump looks like Trump’s gonna win. The stock market’s crashing. I’m like, huh? And I, my God, I take a look at futures. I said, this is gonna change. This is no big deal. This is not a big deal, a change. I’m like, sure, I’m gonna come on, but everything is gonna be fine. Don’t worry about it. No, no, no, no, crash, bang, boom. Same bloody thing happened. Same bloody thing happened.
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back in, what was this, 2000, am I years right, yeah 2016? Was that when Brexit, the whole Brexit vote occurred? I remember that, I had to go in, I was in Florida and I had to go up to Tampa to do a show because they’re talking about how the markets are gonna disarray because the Brits.
The Brits voted to leave the European Union and I’m like, you know, again, they’re all freaking out on Fox. Look at the markets. I said, everything’s gonna be fine. I’m gonna settle down. Don’t worry about it. Everybody relax. It’s okay. It’s okay. Easy. Anyway, yeah. Yeah. All the big story today. They’re talking about all these things that could happen with trade tariffs. So what’s Trump gonna do? And tax cuts and people are freaking out. Clients are freaking out. Why? Why are you freaking out?
Okay, hello? Hello, this is all short term stuff. You do realize that, right? So because of that, I am going back to the, going back to my crystal ball. This is a, again, this is, again, I’m dating myself in decades. I am realizing every day I’m becoming an old man. No, I’m not becoming M1. This is a column I did back in November.
of 1999. And again, gonna take a look at that timeframe, things that were happening, end of the dot coms, volatility coming into tech stocks. Anyway, volatility in the markets. Oh, forgot about that. Remember then? Oh my God, what was gonna happen? Planes were gonna fall out of the sky. This is November of 99. We had one month. We had one month Y2K bug. Oh my Lord, what was gonna happen? Oh boy.
So, okay, basically what we did here, what my crystal ball does here, we’ll follow it here, okay? I’m gonna tell you what my crystal ball sees, okay? So I’m looking into it, looking into my crystal ball. So we’ll talk about interest rates, right? Because everybody, there’s not a day that goes by, I do radio shows every single day as a guest, here, there, and everywhere. And everybody’s always concerned about.
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interest rates. What are interest rates going to do? And I kind of roll my eyes. They can’t see me roll my eyes when I’m doing radio. And, you know, I don’t explain to people doesn’t really matter how to do things the right way. But what if I were to go on one of these things and say, you know what? You know what everyone thinks the feds lowering rates. Everyone thinks the Fed maybe a couple rate cuts or not sure inflation is a little sticky. What if I were to tell you that the prime rate
is going to climb to 23%. What if I would have said, that’s what I see. Again, if I were to come out and say that and put out a press release, I’d be invited on every single financial program out there because they want to get the people going. Okay. That’s why you make out. You want to get booked. You got to start saying some outrageous crap. But anyway, um, you know, I’m gonna say too, um, unemployment’s gonna, it’s gonna top out, kind of top out 13%.
by the end of the year, yeah. 10 percentage points higher. We’re gonna see businesses fail. We just had a bank fail on Friday in Pennsylvania. We’re gonna see more of them fail. Unfortunately, we’re gonna see more acts of terror. Markets gonna take a nosedive and there’s gonna be some attempts on elected officials’ lives.
That’s what I see for the rest of this year. So my crystal ball is telling.
How many people out there, how many people out there wanna put money to work? Let’s go, let’s start investing, baby. Let’s start investing. How many people, if I, Chris LeBall told you this is what I believe, this is what I see is gonna happen this year, moving forward, how many of you out there would want to invest?
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Well, my crystal ball, it doesn’t tell the future, it tells the past. And the events that I just talked about happened between 1979 and 1989, where the Dow went from, what was it, 838 to 2 ,753, an average of 18 % a year.
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Um, calm down. You’re not making adjustments. If you’re making adjustments to your portfolio because of an election, okay, you’re gonna you’re gonna you’re making a mistake.
You’re making a mistake. Do you own high quality companies? Do you own high quality companies? Where do you see them? Five, 10, 15, 20 years from now. That’s the only thing that you need to concern yourself with. Not the elephants and the donkeys or any of that stuff, okay? The grand scheme of things, it’s not important. Sure, it’s great, gonna get the people going. It’s great to talk about.
uh you know the talking heads on tv and all that good stuff but but the reality of the situation is not changing what we’re doing watchdog on wallstreet .com