Venezuela Oil Deal: The U.S. Government Just Went Into Business With a Dictator and the Cheerleaders Are Losing Their Minds

Let Me Introduce You to Venezuelan Oil

I am going to do something radical here. I am going to use facts.

Yes, Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world. That part is true. Here is the part the hype machine leaves out: the oil is essentially tar. I have been to Venezuela. I have seen it bubble up on the beaches. You step in it. It is thick, heavy, difficult to extract, and extremely expensive to process. That is not a minor footnote. That is the entire ballgame.

This is why Chevron and ExxonMobil, companies that exist solely to make money from oil, were not exactly sprinting to develop these reserves even when they had openings to do so. The economics are brutal. The infrastructure requirements are massive. And the political environment makes all of that exponentially worse.

Here Is What You Are Not Being Told

The deal being constructed would make the United States a financial stakeholder in a private company. That private company would receive century-long rights to Venezuelan oil reserves. The company is reportedly operated by Alejandro Betancourt. Look that name up. Seriously, look it up.

And here is the kicker that should make every single person who spent the last decade worried about government overreach stop cold:

• The entity running this U.S. investment is reportedly the Pentagon
• We are going into business hand in hand with an unelected socialist government
• This is a private company arrangement, not a transparent public structure with congressional oversight
• Both the Venezuelan left and right are unhappy with how this looks, including commentators you would recognize from American television

When China’s military, the PLA, holds commercial investment stakes in private companies, we treat it as a five-alarm national security fire. I am simply asking: what do we call it when we do the same thing?

Apply the Simple Test

I want you to try something. Picture every element of this deal exactly as it is structured. Foreign socialist dictatorship. Unelected government. Private company. Century-long resource rights. Pentagon managing the investment stake.

Now put Barack Obama’s name on it instead of Trump’s.

What is your reaction now?

If your answer changed, you are not analyzing a deal. You are cheering for a team. And cheering for teams is a fantastic way to lose your money and your credibility at the same time.

The Wall Street Journal editorial board essentially channeled my thinking when they referenced The Godfather Part Two in their piece on this. The scene writes itself. American interests walk into a corrupt foreign power structure convinced they are getting the better end of the arrangement. Spoiler: they are not the ones in control.

The Bottom Line

I am not telling you this deal collapses tomorrow. I am telling you the following:

• The oil is far harder and more expensive to produce than the reserve numbers imply
• The political partner is an unelected regime with a track record that should terrify any serious investor
• The private company structure limits transparency and accountability
• The precedent being set for U.S. government entities managing foreign commercial oil stakes is genuinely unprecedented
• The people celebrating loudest right now have done the least amount of homework

Tweets are not news. Half stories from influencers are not analysis. I gave you the facts. What you do with them is up to you.