Iran’s Terrain Reality: Why This Conflict Won’t Go to Plan

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The reality, the frightening reality of the Iranian terrain. I’ve explained this before here on the program. You go with the terrain. What do I mean when you go with the terrain? You may go into something with a plan. You may go into something with a plan. This was described, you know, like a Navy SEAL could describe this. You know, we plan for an attack. We plan to go do something. We’ve got our map, but we get to where we land. We get on the ground and guess what? The map’s wrong. What do we do?

do we stick with the map that’s wrong or do we actually adapt to the terrain? Well, I’m going to explain the Iranian terrain, not just as far as the geopolitics, foreign policy, what’s next, but also you have to handle this as an investor. I’m here to tell you right now, most of what you’re hearing from

Fox from CNN from wherever it may be it’s just quite right it’s it’s inaccurate it’s inaccurate statements being made by the president quite frankly just not telling the truth again that’s that’s this could be part of his plan but no no 10 ships were not

allowed through. Last night, he said aboard the plane that they said is going to be another 10 on that it’s going to be 20 ships that are going to be allowed to go through. As of right now, nothing. Nothing when it comes to that. Trump put out and again was right before the markets opened. This morning, he put out a tweet.

basically saying, hey, listen, we’ve got a new regime in there that’s actually we can actually deal with. We can actually deal with them. And, know, we’re going to be working with them. And if not, if we don’t work with them, then we’re going to I’m paraphrasing, we are going to bomb them. We’re going to bomb their electric infrastructure. We’re going to go after desalination plants. We’re going to do this, that and the next thing. Hmm. Okay. Okay.

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If you look around the globe, you’re getting statements from the defense ministers of various different countries basically saying the Intelligent and they’re being honest I say the intelligence briefings that we are getting right now are keeping them up at night and how this thing could play out How this thing could play out not only on the battlefield but on the global economy As it stands right now

Monday, what am I doing is 1130 in the morning. Markets are up, stock market is up. It’s not because of any tweets or anything like that. You’re basically looking at people covering their short positions that have done very well. If you think that this is any sort of trend to the upside, no way, no how right now as far as this stands.

unless there is a massive change in direction on the ground. Again, I’m gonna go to a great piece that was put out by the folks over at Epsilon Theory and they’re in the same business that I am. These are high and very, very good, competent, excellent individuals in the money management business.

Very smart folks. You know, I they’ve cited my stuff I cite their stuff. Very, very good at what they do. Ben Hunt is been pretty prolific in his writing. He really is really bright guy and he’s talking about self reflection and the Iran debacle. Now again, this is similar way of thinking and some of the things that we have been trying to teach here.

on the program. People basically people right now and this is my take people who are completely incapable, incapable or unwilling to engage in any counterfactual self reflection any what if exercise of introspection. I several months ago did a lengthy podcast talking about

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identity. Identity when people’s

people’s team, their ideology, I’m on the MAGA team, I’m on this team, that ends up becoming their identity. Well, those are people that, again, are completely incapable of introspection. that’s not a good thing. That’s what we have seemingly right now, as far as Washington is concerned. This piece, talks about this, and if you take a look at it, it’s…

I’m being honest, it’s a tad bit on the creepy side. There’s a television show fallout, where it’s kind of like a nuclear Holocaust based on a video game is this little slogan that Palantir has put out reminds me of something from that, that television show, I watched a couple episodes of it. It’s called connecting the supply chain to the kill chain. Again, look at it, it looks like it’s some kind of spoof.

for crying out loud, but it’s not. It’s real. Speed up the kill chain. Make it go faster.

When you are able to, and everyone should, again, this is the importance of spending some time, and I highly encourage everyone to do this. Every day you need to spend some time with yourself. You need to be still. You need to spend time with yourself and thinking about the things that you’ve done, you’ve said, and really reflect.

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upon that. Whether it be a business, whether it be government in any type of institution or personal self reflection is to break. To break. And just like the brakes on your car, they are as necessary as the gas pedal for efficacy. You understand?

What that means, they’re both important. They’re both very important. Especially in today’s day and age.

where all the information coming as Fast and Furious and AI and all these various different things. Sometimes you may need to rethink things. Sometimes, all the time, you need to have that, again, introspection. In fact, in this piece, folks over at Epsilon Theory, introspection reveals that you have a state of mind. Skartson say, am.

Therefore, I think it’s the other way around. The thinking is what generates the I am. It’s what generates the I am in all of us introspection, which we recognize our own I am and the presence of an I am in other thinkers. You know, at least all sorts of social interactions, it’s important. It’s the bottom line. Efficacy in social interaction comes from treating others as possessing

and I am as being autonomous thinking beings. And this is true in war and conflict and friends and any relationship that you’re going to have. There is a saying in the military, an old saying, the enemy gets a vote.

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No matter how bad you are. And again, you can listen to to Hagseth. We are perfect. Took a shit out of them. Fury from above. Crash, bang, boom, decimated. They’ve got no this. They’ve got no that. Yeah. No matter how badly you’re beating the crap out of them on the battlefield. Yeah, there’s always choices for the other guy. You don’t

have a final say and we have not learned that from Vietnam, from Afghanistan, from Korea, from Iraq, have we?

Yeah, no losses on a battlefield. Just just, you know, beating up a Jesus out of them, right? Well, you can try the enemy, you can try to influence the vote of your enemy. You can make some of the decisions that they’re going to make. You can make them costly, make them pleasant. But again, they have.

a say, the enemy gets a vote. Fatal flaw of any person or institution incapable or unwilling to engage in self-reflection or introspection is not so much that they have a stunted sense of themselves, but more so that they have a stunted sense of others. They do not treat other persons or institutions as having an independent I am. They do not believe that the other player has a choice.

They do not believe that the other player has a vote. They see the other person or institution’s decision making process as a mirror of their own raw, unexamined preferences and desires. They act without a break. All gas, no break. Whatever is slowing down to accommodate the other player’s choices into their own decision making matrix. Okay? This is non-strategic. Because everything then is

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and exercise in domination or submission. Winston Churchill said about Hitler’s Germany, they’re either at your throat or at your feet. It’s not that they miscalculate the game theory. It’s they don’t calculate at all.

And it can work for a while, this mirroring of your own raw preferences on others, particularly if you start from a really strong position and can just steamroll the other players. But eventually you run into someone you can’t steamroll and they vote in a way that you weren’t expecting and then you lose.

Now the folks over at Epsilon Theory believe now that we have lost the Iran war. We’ve lost it. They said the United States has already lost exactly the same way that Russia lost after the first three weeks of the Ukraine invasion. Trump and Yahoo and MBS and

believed that this is we don’t know this now. OK, that it was, you know, the Iranian. Ayatollah’s in that country was just another bunch of like mob like mentality. Thugs, you could whack them into submission. And again, it’s the way that they think, quite frankly.

And again, this, you you look at the way people mirroring their own unexamined preferences and desires on the other player. Now, again, you know, their belief was the initial wave of bombs and assassinations would have been enough for a mob boss to say, whoa, let’s make a deal. But that’s not going to happen with Iran.

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They’re voting to fight this out. We’re like Russia. We can keep fighting as long as we want. As long as we want. We don’t have to ever say defeat. Again, how long? 20 years in Afghanistan. Lives lost, trillions of dollars spent. Okay, that happened. Vietnam, Iraq.

We weren’t forced off the battlefield. We left when we wanted to.

But that victory, that victory that they thought we were gonna have, lickety-split, again, we’ve declared victory like 18 times. 18 times. That’s just not possible.

I don’t see I mean, again, we have without a doubt, we’ve we have we knocked them down a peg or two, or three or four. Again, we don’t know. We don’t know we were told, you know, 98 % 110 % 110 % of Iran’s capabilities. You know, the actual the actual intelligence assessment says we may have knocked out 30 may have knocked out 30.

Okay, they’re not. My ran is going to be capable of future attacks, whatever it may be. That’s that’s the reality.

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I mean, that country is too big, too big, let’s be honest, their economy is, it’s not the Afghanistan economy. We couldn’t handle that one. They’re similar. You gotta understand how long they’ve been around. Iran, Egypt, Turkey. They’re not, it’s not Kuwait. It’s not the UAE, okay? They’re real nations.

They’re real nations and you really can’t. It’s hard to destroy real nations. Okay. You want to invade it? Sure, we could. We could invade it. Not going to be easy. It’s going to be a lot of much loss of life. Yeah, we continue to bomb the hell out of it. Kill a lot of people. Can occupy parts of it. That’s what we want to do. But again, that’s a real nation. They have an I am.

And they have a quite a few choices. Quite a few choices that quite frankly, we are missing. We miss. Trump missed. Putin missed when it came to Ukraine. Other presidents have missed. And all of our happy, happy, joy plans and strategies are collapsing. Collapsing.

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We have to start understanding that these people in Iran have, again, they have their own choices. And they’re nothing like the preferences that we have. I’m worried, worried, and I know many others are, that what, it’s about gonna be about another week, another week until we have those 5,000 Marines in striking.

distance there.

I don’t know when.

I’m not very confident that when presidents bring troops from halfway across the globe, I think they’re going to be inclined to use it. And everyone right now, everyone right now needs to be looking at an off ramp. You start having you start having missiles hitting desalination.

plants and oil fields. People it’s going to be it’s going to be a long, long hard slog for the entire global economy that that is you want the reality the terrain. That is the reality of the terrain. Again, I don’t like it. I don’t like it one bit. I think this was quite frankly nonsensical. But this is where we’re at.

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This is where we’re at and we have to deal with it. There’s gonna be tremendous opportunities. I don’t even like talking like this because he almost sounds ghoulish to some degree, but it is what it is. There’s a lot of value being created in certain areas of the market. Do I think we’re at a bottom? No, but that’s not gonna stop me from continuing to look around and continue to buy.

You’re never gonna get at the exact bottom. You’re never gonna get out at the exact top You have to understand where we’re gonna be five ten fifteen twenty years down the road I Think that will I believe I truly believe it’ll be a much better place Then we’re at right now because that again offers up opportunity again, we all need to be Praying for an off-ramp my friends sooner rather

than later. Watchdog on wallstreet.com.