Foreign Policy “Funhouse”? Markets Jump as Iran Tensions Rise
(00:00.078)
right up kids and welcome to the foreign policy fun house. Yeah, I feel like I’m a Kearney at the fair trying to get people to pay their bucks to go into the fun house and look at the mirrors and see things distorted. Anyway, guys, I’m gonna do the best I possibly can spent a ridiculous amount of time.
This weekend doing homework trying to follow up on all of the news and everything was going on the statements Being made you know what we’ll start off. Well. You know we’re gonna. We’re gonna work our way backwards How’s that we’re gonna work our way backwards as it stands right now? What it’s just I’m time stamp when I’m doing this one. I said what about 1030 Eastern time? 1030 Eastern time March 23rd and the stock market is
up for now. So this morning, this morning, I get up bright and early, bright and early and I see the futures are down 3am. More importantly, more of a much much more important number than the stock market futures is the bond market. People been listening to this show for some time.
I know last year with the whole Liberation Day thing, I covered the importance of the bond market and the 10-year treasury was getting a little bit nuts like it did last year. Now I want to remind everyone, that’s what it costs for us to borrow. We still have to roll over at this point in time.
trillions and trillions of dollars in debt this year. The higher the 10 year, guess what? That’s the more interest we’re going to have to pay. That’s just the reality. Saw that bright and early this morning. And again, that is very, very concerning. So so I do my normal thing, I do a guest appearance or two in the morning, I work out, I get back into the house and all of a sudden,
(02:18.018)
But I’m buying stock market futures opposite direction. Now again, mind you, mind you, okay. We were gonna see mortgage rates above 7 % very, soon with that 10 year stock market reverses. Donald Trump puts out a statement. I am pleased to report that the United States of America and the country of Iran have had over the past two days, very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution.
of our hostilities in the Middle East. Based on the tenor and tone of these in-depth, detailed and constructive conversations, which will continue throughout the week, I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions. Thank you for your attention to this matter. Now,
not long after. And again, you watch right now you can go on to social media watch various different pundits. you got to believe Trump. No, you got to believe the Iranians. I don’t believe anybody. Okay. Why? I’ve been around the block.
I’ve been around the block. I you know again, I think that there’s probably a little bit of truth to both of their statements, but Probably a lot of fallacy as well Iran Defied Trump’s statement saying there has been no indirect or direct contact with President Trump. He’s trying to buy time in the Iran War President Trump withdrew from power plant strikes after Iran’s firm warning Trump’s comments are psychological warfare
or Moos will not return to pre-war conditions as long as psychological warfare continues. They basically denied everything that Trump is saying. Now, a couple weeks ago, here on the program, I discussed, it’s not just the energy infrastructure in the Middle East, it’s also the desalination plants. That’s a big deal. That’s a big deal. looking into,
(04:31.374)
you know, what you’re looking at right now against desalination, they need water. 7.2 trillion liters come from desalination in the Gulf states. Some states need it more than others and the reliance Qatar. Yeah, 61 % of their water comes from desalination Bahrain 59 %
Kuwait, 47%, UAE, 41%, Oman, 23%, Saudi Arabia, they’re 18%, even though they use the most based upon their population. You would obviously see the issues if desalination plants are getting hit, what could happen? Not to mention energy infrastructure. Again, it’s almost like we’ve got this
It’s almost like a mutually assured destruction type of a scenario mad that take you back to the Cold War. The whole idea that well, you know, Russia is not going to attack us because we can attack them mutually assured destruction. They start hitting energy infrastructure, start hitting desalination plants. Look out below.
Look out below because you’re going to have a humanitarian crisis and most certainly would set the world back. You’d be talking World War type of stuff. That’s that’s the reality. That’s been my concern from the get go in regards to this. I’m going to take a little side now. We’re to get get into more of this and who’s going to you know who benefits from that how this is going to all work out. I have I get some pretty
pretty good. I like I love the fact it’s a pretty astute, pretty smart. Listeners out there. God bless you guys. And I get great comments and emails from people and I do have to make a quick apology. I’m slammed. Okay, I’m slammed. I haven’t been able to go through and answer as any many emails as I’d like to is actually quite frankly, it’s been few and far between as of late. And many of the people they send me
(07:00.138)
messages and they give me various different thinkers that I’ve quoted here on the programs, various people I have respect for people I’ve touted their books, whatever it may be. And I get that and you know how they’re coming out and they’re supporting certain things. I’m going to bring up this one, because it was brought to my attention a few times from some of the listeners and I’ve mentioned his books on the program, Victor Davis Hansen, I
pretty much read them all, think. Great historian, great, great work, know, fascinating stuff he puts out there and pointing out the fact that Victor Davis Hansen, he’s a regular on Fox News and he has a podcast has come out in support of what is taking place. And, okay, and I have seen, I actually addressed it, I’ve seen his arguments.
And as much respect I have for the guy. I’m sorry, I don’t
The holes in his arguments are just, they don’t make any sense to me. They really don’t. And I’ll tie this into quite frankly, was some people were kind of put back people to know watched secretary Besson’s interview on meet the press yesterday. It was bad. Not to mention the fact why the hell? Why? I he’s a last one. I don’t know. I think it’s probably the last one that Trump trusts.
in front of a camera at this point in time. Remember, used to be Lutnik and Navarro. I got rid of he’s there. I don’t let them get those two get in front of a camera anymore. Secretary, you said to the secretary treasury out on Meet the Press to defend. The Iraq war, I know there’s no way he was going to let Hagseth go out there. No way. No, wow. They get questioned on Meet the Press and. Bessence statements quite for it, and this is part of the problem.
(09:05.506)
that again, I talk about unintended consequences. Lastly, my favorite risk manager out there can try to follow, you know, helps us design portfolio in the sense you following the type of risk management, anti fragile, all those concepts that we’ve talked about here on the program, NASA, Nicholas Taleb, he points out is like, this is ridiculous, basically saying this guy’s a buffoon. And things that we’ve talked about here.
fat tails, multiplicative interaction between variables, irreversibility. Again, the various different things, the oversimplification of the treasury sector and how this thing is going brought up, Hitler, they’re dead in Hitler’s bunker and he’s making these comments and what was the other one? We have to escalate, to de-escalate.
Again, the amount of risk that you basically unleashed.
on the world is out there. And I’ve said right here, makes me fricking nervous. And you know, some of these pundits that are out there and again, these are again, I read their books. I case of Victor Davis Hansen is a great historian, but Victor Davis Hansen outside of. Fantastic books, he writes, you know, whatever it may be. You take a look at the calls he’s made over the years.
when it comes to wars. Full support in regards to Afghanistan all the way through full support in regards to the Iraq war a little bit wishy washy when it came to Libya and again he is he’s a member of the Heritage Foundation I used to be a member quit quit they’re just way too pro war for me quite frankly and again it’s kind of the two variables married member of
(11:12.802)
Heritage member of Cato, Cato obviously being a libertarian think tank. To me, they’ve gone off the rails when it comes to this stuff. So again, that’s great, but with fantastic books. You also have to be careful, people. I said, you are what your record says you are. And you watch some of these people on TV and well, whatever it may be.
You still got to, you can give you little bit of pause. I have, you know, I wish you get an interview on Fox News or he’s always on Laura Ingraham’s program. Why not, you know, knowing his positions in the past, ask him, Professor Hanson, you were very much in favor of the Afghanistan war. You were very much, all in.
Removing Saddam, the wonders of that, what he basically, this is gonna be great. It’s gonna allow us to contain Iran. That was some of the points that he made, if you don’t believe me, look it up. What’s different and why?
or if you change your mind in regards to things you in the past. Again, at the beginning of the Iraq war, you can go to my archives on my site, the columns that I have written. I was right there with George W. Bush and Cheney and Rumsfeld at the time. I trusted them, I believed them until I didn’t.
till I didn’t and saw what was going on, understood that this was one big dupe, this was stupid, that was wrong. And I regret it, but I admit to it.
(13:05.026)
Throwing that out there. OK, the warmongers are out. There was a piece today by Seth Cropsey in the Wall Street Journal. Again, these people scare. It’s right out of it’s Dr. Strangelove type of stuff right here. Yeah, we need to put troops on the ground. We got to be sending people. We need to take cargo.
We’ve got to do this. We’ve got to do that. Lindsey Graham. Lindsey Graham scares the crap out of me. You listen to this guy. Cargaz Iwo Jima. We took Iwo Jima. We did. And twenty six thousand American lives as well, not to mention the injured that went along with that. Then I listened to an interview with Ted Cruz.
Bragging basically bragging about how he helped Trump into this Invasion Let me be perfectly clean this is how this is how the United States will fall Okay When the when the United States and all nations eventually empires when we’ve turned ourselves into an empire and you think warms my heart
by saying this, I love the principles of this country. I really do. And quite frankly to me, that’s what make America great is, and let’s go back to the principles that actually made the country great.
But what made the country great was that it was not, you know, decided to be Team America, World Police.
(14:56.142)
It didn’t. That’s not what made America great. And that’s what we’re doing now. If you were, again, you were a strategist and you’re going to say, OK, here’s this country that’s got two massive oceans protecting it. It’s got a friendly country to the north. It’s got Mexico to the south. OK, isn’t that what are we going to do? We got to invade the United States of America.
You’re going to bomb it into submission. the only time America has been attacked by a foreign power. was Pearl Harbor. Pearl Harbor military installation. hell and high water away from the continental United States. Think about it, it’s Cold War. How far is, how far is freaking Alaska to Russia? It’s right there.
Right there, you can see them. I mean, they’re right next to one another.
Japan ticked off at the fact that we cut them off when it guards the oil. We talked about that here on the program and I’m not gonna get into why and who was right and who was wrong. I get the reasons why we did it. I can also understand the other side, whatever it may be. No way, no how was any, you’re gonna, we’re gonna have, people are gonna, like the movie Red Dawn, they’re gonna have, drop people into the country. It’s nonsensical, quite frankly. It’s not gonna happen.
The way you attack the United States, the way you bring America to its knees is through economics.
(16:43.958)
through money. Now this is very, very important. And again, these are the things that they are not going to explain to you on CNBC or on Fox News. They’re just not going to do it. We are $39 trillion in debt and counting. What allows us to be that far into debt is quite frankly is because of the dollars
reserve currency status. And why is the oil is priced in dollars. Oil is priced in dollars. Isn’t it ironic that the United States decided to go into Venezuela, when Venezuela said, you know what, we’re going to start selling oil. One the reasons we’re gonna start selling oil in one or other currencies.
right now. Iran is saying, hey, straight up or moves is open. Straight up or moves is open. You can you can pull your ship through unless you’re America, Israel or any of their allies. And you have to sell your oil in one.
(18:08.409)
That’s what they’re saying.
(18:12.463)
I, we have spent.
ungodly sums of money on the war on terror. Again, going back to 9-11, a horrific event in New York City conducted by a bunch of Saudis with box cutters.
In response to that event, response to that event, we have spent well over $8 trillion and counting. Put our nation in a very, very difficult fiscal situation without a doubt. And we have got this permanent boogeyman that these people in Washington, D.C. tell us that we are always under threat.
There we there’s a there’s a boogeyman under every single bed Every single time I see some politician out there saying that Iran was an imminent threat I want you to go back two three months ago do a man-on-the-street interview and ask them what the you They feel that the United States biggest threat is you can think that we’re bringing up Iran
There is no flippin’ way Iran would ever be bombing the United States. Or invading the United States.
(19:34.479)
It’s not happening.
OK, it’s a complete act of stupidity. On their part. They problem, yeah, can say that they’re they’re problematic. But right now. Right now, we’re being told that and I’ll get into it another podcast that we have to spend another 200 billion dollars to support this war. And a lot of the other things in this thing, just quite frankly.
Don’t add up. You think about you think about the fact that Scott Besant was playing. mean, it was it was pathetic in his defense. He didn’t even want to answer the question is defense of, yeah, we unsanctioned Iranian oil and Russian oil basically by unsanctioning their oil. He said, well, if we didn’t do that, the price is to go higher. They’re going to even make more.
What? Trump and many people out there criticized Barack Obama for flying $1.7 billion in cash to the Iranians as a part of that deal. whether you want to agree with it or not, we were not paying off the Iranians, just so you know.
It was their money that was frozen in our banks.
(21:10.361)
was their money was frozen in our banks. We weren’t paying them off. Okay, again, you could, not gonna, I’m not gonna go into the deal, whether you agree with it or not deal with it. Iran’s gonna pocket about $14 billion.
with the oil being unsanctioned. Compare that to the 1.7 billion that was returned. And we’re told that that’s somehow a win.
(21:40.079)
You see people, yeah, we can look at the great effort by our military and everything that they wrecked and destroyed, whatever it may be, but they still got us too.
(21:54.928)
They, I mean, obviously, we’re essentially allowing them to finance the war against us or between, again, if you actually want to understand it and put it in the proper perspective.
What the reality is here? I don’t know. Like I said, it’s not even really that funny of a joke. Foreign policy funhouse, because this is not fun.
This is not fun. At some point in time, it’s just the reality. We’re gonna hit a wall when it comes to this. Cannot continue to borrow and spend and fight wars all over the globe. In my humble opinion, okay, like I said, folks at the Neocons and the folks at Heritage will disagree with me. We need a bloody timeout.
We need a bloody timeout. need to focus on, we need to work on ourselves, okay? Work on ourselves, okay? could, imminent threat, imminent threat here, no, no, no, no, no, no, sorry. I don’t, there’s no way Iran was gonna shoot off any missile on the American homeland, okay? Just not happening. they’re gonna attack our ally, you know what? Let our allies,
(23:30.947)
protect themselves. Europe is right there.
The group’s right there. They’ve been dealing with the Iranians. Ever been to a European airport? They direct flights every freaking day to Tehran. They do. They do business with them.
(23:48.787)
A lot of money, a lot of money, and we’ll get into the $200 billion, is gonna be made off this by certain people, again, that are in the big club. Again, I welcome.
welcome any sort of disagreements out there. know they’re gonna be this close to a nuke, they’re gonna be this close to a nuke. I’ve been hearing that, I’m sorry, but hearing that exact same line, not for years, for decades.
for decades.
(24:30.031)
Ken, you wanna, that’s fine.
(24:35.565)
fine I happen I happen to disagree
Watchdog on wallstreet.com.
