Energy Crisis Reality Check: Oil, War & Economic Fallout

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Well, everybody’s been listening to this program for some time. You know well, I don’t sugarcoat things. Just don’t. Don’t sugarcoat anything here at the Watchdog and Wall Street shows. No spoonfuls are gonna make the medicine go down. We’ve got ourselves a bit of a nightmare oil and gas scenario and then some. And then some. And again, I don’t care what team you’re on. You’re in donkey, you’re in elephant. This is Jay.

Basic mathematics, okay? Mathematics and we’re throwing a kitchen sink at it at this point in time. And I guess it’s helping in the interim, but we’re throwing band-aids. What are we throwing right now? And again, I just want to show you just how ridiculous this is. Again, you’re going to get the people out there that are all in the sycophants and quite, they’re not very bright.

A lot of the pundits that are on Fox News, just as much as MSNBC doesn’t have very bright pundits either, but they’re coming out and they’re just applauding this amazing, master class and strategy. look at that. We’re going to unsanction Russian oil and Iranian oil. There was actually a Caitlin Collins, CNN was questioning, I forget some senator.

public and center. I remember his name. He’s on the Armed Services Committee. Iran’s not getting the money. And she’s like, yes, they are. Well, no, no, no. we’re gonna put it you know, the internet’s not down. She’s like, well, the internet’s not down for the is down for the general public. It still works for them. I mean, it’s, it’s not so we are at war. We’re at war with Iran.

And we lifted the sanctions on Iran so Iran can sell their oil.

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and get money for it.

Does that sound like brilliant strategy? Oh, they’re playing 3D chess, 5D chess. No, they’re playing chutes and ladders. Okay? And they’re going down the chute. They’re not climbing any bloody ladder. They don’t have any choice. If we didn’t unsanction Russian oil and we didn’t unsanction Iranian oil, we would have $150 a barrel right now, maybe worse.

Maybe worse. So yeah, it’s kind of like shooting ourselves in the foot. I’ve gone over basically the critical energy assets that have been damaged in the Gulf. We hit targets on Karg Island. Israel. Israel hit the South Pars gas field. Iran hit.

back at the Rosloff and industrial city in Qatar, which houses the world’s largest LNG plant. Drone strikes shut down a terminal. This is in the UAE pipeline. That’s that’s over there. They’re saying right now that 17 % Tars LNG capacity is going to be offline.

for five years. For five years. Right now. Italy, for example, gets most of their their well, energy, their LNG, LNG, Laquan Natural Gas from Qatar, their prices are up over 30%. Now, so we were, what was the matter to us? We don’t care what we got wrong. And again, this is the type of thing.

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That hurts my head If they have to spend more on energy in Europe or Asia first and foremost, it’s gonna obviously Cost them more to produce items that we purchase from them, but it’s gonna also Hurt their buying power as well and we do sell stuff to them

and you think they’re going to be able to afford things, you think this is beneficial. You don’t think we have an interconnected global market. Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is saying that they see $180 oil if this thing keeps going past April.

And some people say, well, it’s not going to benefit Saudi Arabia. That’s how they make their money. Yes and no. Yes and no. Yeah, it will most certainly help them probably in the early stages, but that’s just going to drive a global recession. Energy use will go down again. There’s two sides to everything. They don’t want one hundred and eighty dollars a barrel oil. It’s going to cause all sorts of problems. Let’s also

Go over again, nobody is talking about any of this. Yeah, it’s not exciting. I can’t fit it into a couple minutes sound bite on a cable news network. Let’s talk about some of the things that could be affected by supply disruption risks. Sulphur, Middle East market share is 45%. That is.

and input for sulfuric acid and fertilizer production, agriculture, chemicals, metal processing, lead acid batteries, industrial power. What else we got here? Oh yeah, butane, protein, propane, excuse me. 44 % Middle East share, butane, propane 25%, importance fuel and petrochemical. And again, not good, industrial power, petrochemicals.

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Crude oil, obviously 34 % is a Middle East market share. Helium, 33 % comes through the Middle East and that’s critical for semiconductors and MRI systems.

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Methanol butadiene Building block chemicals plastic and solvents When produced synthetic rubber and engineering plastics aluminum 24 % Urea phosphate ammonia, that’s obviously for fertilizer crop production Liquified natural gas 19 % comes through their electricity generation industrial heat feedstock for ammonia

Light refined oil products, key petrochemical feedstock used to things. called, Ophens, which is used in automotive and various different other things. These are other things that are being affected by this. We already have the International Energy Agency. these are again, these are stories that we’re not hearing about, okay?

We’re not hearing about them here in the States, but they’re telling around the globe, work from home. Yeah, they’re actually pulling the COVID. They’re telling people, urging people to work from home to conserve fuel.

President just put out a tweet. Without the United States, NATO is a paper tiger. They didn’t want to join the fight to stop a nuclear-powered Iran. Okay. And I’m sorry, I know there’s a lot of, you know, people who yeah, right!

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Did we ask them in regards to this? Did we consult with our allies on this at all?

And actually was embarrassing, in my opinion, yesterday. President United States was asked about that question was with the Japanese prime minister. He’s like, that’d be a surprise. Japan knows about surprises at Pearl Harbor. And I’m like, I couldn’t believe what I was watching. But again, I got to stop, you know, just with this. just, you know, you got to expect the unexpected, I guess.

Now that the fight is militarily won with very little danger for them, they complain about the high oil prices they are forced to pay, but don’t want to help open the strait of Ormuz, a simple military maneuver that is the single reason for the high oil prices so easy for them to do with so little risk. Calls our NATO allies cowards with capital and we will remember.

Yeah. OK. Yeah, you know, don’t know where to go with this at this point in time. The global markets right now, seeing oil prices elevated, you’ve seen what’s going on with natural gas are basically crossing their fingers. Crossing their fingers that we’re going to have to pull out sooner rather

than later because things are not going the way we wanted them to. They’re counting on it at that at this point in time. But be very, very clear. If this extends, this extends, it keeps going on and we’re going into the end of it. But it goes on further. Look out below, kids. That’s that’s just a reality. You’re going to you’re everyone is going to be taking their their lumps for a while.

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in regards to this. There’s no doubt about it. You can go back to 2022 when he had the oil price, what was it, about a 25 % market correction, easily get that and then some. No problem at all and that’ll be lickety split.

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