Trump Tariff Terror: How Ford, Mattel, Delta & Others Are Struggling

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The trilogy of Tariff Terror. Two movies when I was a kid. To this day, they both gave me nightmares. For whatever reason, we were kids, used to like frightening movies, stay up late watching certain things. The Exorcist, Scare the Hell Out Me, there was another one. It was a television show. And I don’t remember, it was three different stories, I don’t remember the first two.

But the third one in Trilogy of Terror had to do with this doll. This scary African doll that had really scary teeth and the chain fell off the doll that kept the evil spirit at bay and then the doll came to life. I don’t know that’s what started it, but I hate dolls. Hate them, always been afraid of dolls, can’t stand them. My kids when they were younger, they knew that.

And if I was away from my home office, they would hide dolls all over my office trying to scare me. But that’s just kids being kids. But anyway, neither here nor there. We’re gonna do a little trilogy, trilogy of terror right here. First and foremost, listen, I appreciate the various different messages and emails that I’m getting for people. And again, what they’re doing is people are sending me columns.

articles written by so-called experts. So-called experts, they show up on like Market Watch or various different places there that are in support of the tariff strategy that our country has undertaken. listen, you’re trying and you’re trying to prove your point. However, you have to take a look at the source.

look at the person that wrote the article. And most of you don’t understand this. I’ve tried to explain this over the years here on the program. A lot of what you read nowadays is bought and sold. That’s right. It’s a commodity. I have a popular podcast. I’ve had a radio show for 25 years. I could put a lot of coin in my pocket.

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by having various different people come on the show. People will pay me money to come on my show and basically push whatever they’re pushing at that point in time. That’s their job. That’s their job. Their job is to get out whatever they’re told to get out. They’re influencing in that manner. And it works with the news. Works with the news. You’ll have various different

think tanks or organizations and they often have names like the Center for Super Awesome American Prosperity and they come up with all this nonsense. They make up these ridiculous organizations which are funded by politics, politicians, agendas, various different groups and they’re out there to push an agenda. The BS that is out there when it comes to the news nowadays, it’s a sewer.

It is a sewer. I was thinking about it today. There was that scene in Ocean’s Eleven when Basher, Basher crawled out from the sewer in Las Vegas and he was covered in poop. That’s, that’s, that’s, that’s basically what it is anyway. Anyway, it’s a pay for play type of system. And the same way you’re, paying for trophies too. You’re paying for trophies too. Again, if you want to be featured in

Something, somewhere you have to pay. Anyway, anyway, moving on, moving on. Let’s talk about some of the headlines. I’m gonna go over some facts here today, not BS. This is not fake news. This is not the news pushing him down. This is actually coming from ports. And I don’t know if you saw today, our trade deficit is widening. That’s right. It’s getting worse instead of better.

What began as a rapid drop in US imports as shippers cut orders from manufacturing partners around the world has now extended into a nationwide export slump. With the US agricultural sector and top farm products including soybeans, corn and beef taking the hardest hit. China in particular began in January now extends to US ports. This is trade tracker.

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Vizion, which analyzed US export container bookings for the five week period before the tariffs began in the five weeks after. Decline in container ships. The CEO of Vizion. Kyle Henderson, we haven’t seen anything like this since the disruptions of the summer of 2020. That means goods expected to arrive in the next six.

to eight weeks simply won’t with tariffs driving costs higher. Small businesses are pausing orders. Products that once move reliably are now twice as expensive, forcing importers into tough decisions. These are facts. This is not hyperbole. This is not theory. This is what is happening. Retailers have been urging consumers to buy sooner rather than later.

Again, the latest forecast shows that the number of inbound containers ships will see a sharp drop in May with trade disruptions leading to a 20 % decrease in US container imports from Asia. Pivotal time of year for the holiday shopping season when orders are typically being placed the supply chains tipping point is left to change. Again, it’s is kind of like do or die when it comes to this. I can go.

in detail with this. The CEO of Mattel interviewed this morning and was asked about bringing production of toys back to the United States. He said, no, that’s not going to happen. It’s not going to happen. It doesn’t make any sense. He said, we’re going to continue to design toys. We’re going to continue to do our creative work in the United States, but they’re not moving.

toy manufacturing to the United States. Ford. Ford suspends 2025 guidance. $2.5 billion impact from tariffs. Again, I’m sorry, you have to, at this point in time, you have to feel sorry.

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You have to feel sorry for Ford. Ford and other American auto manufacturers were forced, know, first forced because of ridiculous cafe standards and making cars that they couldn’t make money on. And that was still internal combustion engine cars. Then it moved on to electric vehicles. yeah, that mock series that Ford makes, Mustangs, whatnot. A lot of that is manufactured in Mexico. Why? Well,

They gotta keep the cost down because they’re losing their shirts on the cars. They’re already losing money on those cars. So they did everything that they could so they could lose less money because they were being forced to make those cars. Now you’re putting tariffs on them. Then they’re just gonna move those plants to the United States, lickety split.

$2.5 billion impact. You don’t think that that is eventually going to filter its way down to the consumer? Well, you think Ford’s just going to eat that?

Do you really think that that’s case? Do think that they should have to eat that?

No, again, a tariff is a tax. It’s a tax. Here’s a quick side note here. One of the things that drives me berserk all the time is when you have leftists, leftist, we need to raise corporate taxes. We gotta go after these evil corporations and raise taxes. And what do I explain to you? Okay, a corporate tax is not a tax.

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on a business. It’s not. Corporate tax is a tax on you. Businesses are what? Corporations. Tax ID number and a logo. They don’t have a tree at their corporate office that grows money that they use to pay their taxes. They price the taxes that they have to pay into the goods and services that they are providing to you.

If a tariff is a cost to a business, they are going to price it into the products that they are selling to you.

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Tariff lesson at Nucor Steel. This is funny. Yeah, JD Vance was at Nucor last week. yeah, well, Nucor, they like, I the steel company, I love these tariffs. Some of them. Yeah, yeah, they put tariffs on Nucor.

Well, I’m steel, incoming steel, so Nucor benefits from that. But, uh-oh, some of the tariffs are going to actually hurt Nucor. Having to deal with pig iron and direct reduced iron. These things come from Brazil and Trinidad. So what is Nucor looking to do right now? They’re looking for an exemption. They’re looking.

for an ideal. not to mention the fact that they were expanding a plant here in the United States. And luckily, they got all of the equipment, which is made in Europe prior to the tariffs. But if they want to expand again, tariffs on that equipment. They’re going to need another exemption. Are you going to get an exemption? Probably not. Probably not. Got to hand this one to Delta. Ed Bastion over Delta said, no, no.

The airbuses that we ordered were not paying tariffs on these things. What they did, this was kind of cool. They actually used the planes and flew them to Japan. I’m not making this up. This is genius. Ways around Trump tariffs. They flew their airplanes that they’re buying from Airbus to Japan. So.

before they bring them back to the United States, they’re classified as used airplanes so they can get around the tariffs. Not making it up, but it was kind of genius if you ask me. See, you can do that with certain things like airplanes, other things not so much. Apple, Apple won’t be able to avoid price hikes for long. iPhone maker is absorbing 900 million in tariff across this quarter.

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You think that they’re not gonna start pricing this into their products? Of course they are.

Of they are. You are going to pay. You see, that’s the thing about tariffs, okay? You people buying and say, that’s great, we’re gonna make these companies pay. No, you’re not. You are gonna pay.

I am going to pay. We’re all going to pay. We’re just getting taxed. And then we get this as well. Trump is talking about oil prices are coming.

Why do you think that is? Do you think it’s because of drill, baby drill? No. Why don’t you go and take a look? Okay, well, again, we deal in facts here, okay? Try to test me on anything that I’m giving out. Go and take a look and see when the price of oil fill off a cliff.

Just go take a look See when oil decides such falling off a cliff. Why why is oil falling off a cliff because less economic activity Less economic activity extra use. yeah, sure. Yeah OPEC is using this To their advantage too and they’re upping what they’re doing. They’re smart. They’re upping their production, which is going to hurt American

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Oil producers. Shale giant Diamondback says U.S. oil output has peaked. Slashes, slashes its capital expenditures because of what is taking place, meaning what? People are going to lose their jobs. People are going to lose their jobs. I talked about that show that I’m a big fan of, Landman. Billy Bob Thornton, awesome in that show.

There is a production cost for oil, a break even number. There’s a break even number for the production of oil. And there’s a sweet spot. And once it goes below that sweet spot, guess what? It makes no sense to get it out of the ground. Makes no sense to get out of the ground because you’re going to be selling it. Selling it for less than what you are producing it. That’s

what’s taking place right now. I wanna talk a little bit, I did talk about Trump and his pencils and dolls.

Matthew Hennessy actually had a pretty interesting take on this today. gonna comment on it. Outrageous claims, this is true, outrageous claims are the gasoline that makes Donald Trump’s political career go. Without a steady flow of shocking statements, the motor would stall. But engines also require air. If you get the mixture wrong, the engine floods and the car won’t start.

Trump got the mixture wrong when saying maybe the children will have $2 instead of $30. And maybe the $2 will cost a couple bucks more than they normally would.

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The Chinese ships that deliver cheap goods to American ports are loaded up with stuff, much of which, not all of it, but much of which we don’t need. He made that point again on Meet the Press as well. And he talked about pencils. They don’t need 250 pencils, they need five. Again, Jimmy Carter-esque.

called it Neo Marxist malaise type talk. This is, this is new.

Okay. This is new. This is new for a president. You know, you’ve had in the past, you know, we had in the past, we’ve, know, World War II, you know, tighten your belts because of war and scrap metal drives. Again, this is because of a policy decision.

Hennessy makes the point. You’re are not used to having, in essence, a president basically say, you’re being too materialistic.

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Listen, know, might that be the case for certain people? Yes, I listen, I ask you a question. Why do you think so many people, so many people try to get into this country every single year? I don’t know how you think this is gonna resonate well with people, people, know, the president of United States telling them how wasteful, wasteful they are.

Not to mention a fact, it’s coming from Donald Trump.

This is a guy, this is a guy that would slap throughout his life and all the more power to him if he was able to do it would slap his name on everything for crying out loud Trump vodka. The guy doesn’t drink Trump water.

Trump furniture, had slap his name on everything, started, you know, failed universities. He’s got a bloody gold toilet for crying out loud. You see how he decorates and he’s telling the country to tone it down.

This is, again.

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I’m not getting it. You know, it was funny too. It’s funny too. I’m not making this up. I’m not making this up. There was an actual column today in the Wall Street Journal written by Amy Chan. Amy Chan is the chief sustainability officer at Berkeley.

The chief sustainability officer, ESGDEI, left wing stuff. This is the stuff that Trump doesn’t like. He’s supposedly trying to push back against praising Trump, praising Trump saying that again, all of this and people buying less stuff and this is gonna be wonderful for the environment. I’m not making this up.

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Anyway, another aspect, third part of our trilogy of tariff terror. I tried very hard this month. I tried very hard this month to try to express my concern with how these tariffs were rolled out. And I said from the get go, okay, I don’t have any problem with tariffs.

that are applied in a surgical manner, where there is some sort of reciprocal, where there is, makes sense to everyone out there. From the very beginning, this was an absolute disaster. And spare me, spare me the 3D, 5D, 10D chess that Trump is playing right now, okay? If you honestly still believe that, I’m sorry.

Okay, you got to lay off the MAGA pills. You got to lay off the drugs. Okay. Trump was scared. To put it mildly, when he saw what happened in the bond markets, you think that they were planning on walking back those 90 day that the 90 day reprieve? No, A gentleman that I, from time to time, he’s again, he’s a

great writer, he’s in my industry. His name is Ben Hunt. He’s got a group called the Epsilon Group, of like group of like-minded investment professionals and advisors. And again, he and I, many things we think alike. We use sub-references quite often in our columns and when we speak.

He had a column out there today. Again, it’s great because it’s Godfather, Godfather 3. Our true enemy has yet to reveal himself.

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This is, you know, a line, a line that was used in Godfather 3 and you know, some a lot of people, some worse, who are not a great movie, but come on. Al Pacino was awesome in that movie, awesome. And he had that line, it was kind of right after the assassination attempt in Atlantic City. But anyway, anyway, our true enemy has yet to reveal himself.

And he goes back to a point in time. This is something that I’ve written about extensively. I’ve talked about over there, I’ve tried to teach people about this. We knew at Markowski Investments, we knew that something wicked this way was coming in 2006, 2007, even at the end parts of 2005, I was having WTF moments when it came to real estate and what I was seeing going on. And

You go back to that point in time, you go to do searches of the news. Nobody. mean, what was it? 2000, was it 2007? 2007, I think, is when the two hedge funds over at Bear Stearns imploded. At that point in time, I remember exactly where I was. was outside.

outside of CBS studio of Gandhi Boulevard and Tampa, Florida, after just doing an interview, coming back in my car and I heard about what was taking place. I heard about these hedge funds. I was like, things. Things are going to escalate. But at that point in time, the news. Crickets. Crickets, Ben Bernanke, this is the housing market is rock solid.

The true enemy out there, the over-financialized US residential mortgage market hadn’t revealed itself until it did. Until it did. Subprime loans, how they packaged them, I mean all of these things. Again, I knew that something was wrong. Okay, I had no knowledge of how bad

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it actually was. I didn’t. I didn’t know about the S &P and Moody’s being in cahoots with the various different firms and putting AAA ratings on bonds, a myriad of different things. I had no knowledge of that at all. Anyway.

Anyway, today, why am I bringing this up today? And Ben Hunt brings it up too. The same thing that I was saying earlier on this month, still scaring the crap out of me today. Our treasury market.

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our treasury market. You want to talk about wrecking an immense amount of damage on the global financial system? Go and go and take a look at that. What happened? The flash crash, the 10 year and 30 year treasuries following Liberation Day. Yeah, 10 year treasury was at three point

nine went to 4.56 30 year went from 4.3 to 4.97 doesn’t seem like a lot but it’s a freaking lot again this is the unfortunate thing is people don’t understand okay the world runs okay on the fact that we the people okay the united states of america is

We’re good. We’re good. We are zero risk. We are good on our debt.

If that goes away.

Again, I just want people to try to get your arms around this. US treasury market, I’m gonna quote Ben in this, okay, I covered this earlier. I’m gonna let somebody else basically speak the same way that I did. The touchstone of every loan in the world, every insurance policy in the world, every equity valuation in the world.

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When it flash crashed like that, it broke.

Why did it break? The full faith and credit of the United States came into question.

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Oh no no no! Ha ha! We’re just kidding everybody! Oh no no no, we’re just kidding! Oh, psych! Oh, we’re taking those reciprocal tariffs off on everyone! Woo!

Do you understand here? Another one week, 65 point basis point increase in US long-term interest rates would have broke the world.

Yeah, that’s great David Bowie song, the man who sold the world. They’d have to rewrite that song to the man who broke the world. Everything would break. Every insurer would be in regulatory forbearance and would need to raise capital. Most banks, the dollar would crash. Equity markets would crash. Lending and credit would come to a halt. The Fed would be forced to engage what is called yield curve control.

where they would buy out flat out buy and force big banks to buy 10 year and 30 year treasuries in order to keep their value propped up. Would it work? Yeah, for a little bit.

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for a little bit.

But which is basically the Fed printing money.

That’s what scared me. That’s what was done.

another way and again we’re watching it take place right now. We have to get our fiscal house in order okay? Fiscal house in order big beautiful bill.

Another $5 trillion raising the debt ceiling?

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Listen, people, this is—

This is again, it’s just serious stuff and something I’ve been warning about for some time. Sometime. Ben Hunt from the get go, full disclosure. Okay, I voted for Trump twice. I don’t think Ben did. I’m not a fan. And he writes, said, do you think that Trump would back down from passing a big, beautiful tax cut bill?

even if the bond market freaks out about it? Do you really think that Trump would back down from passing a big, beautiful tax cut bill and continue to back down from his tariffs? Or do you think Trump will start talking about the need to do something about non-U.S. holders of U.S. treasuries because they’re not treating him fairly? A, B, or C?

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again, listen, used Trump and his history with bad debts and, and bankruptcies. he uses, he doesn’t look at them in the same way. You know, I, owe somebody money. You owe some people money. it’s, it’s an obligation that we base on a moral grounding. I don’t know if he’s the same.

when it comes to that. This is the true enemy, people. True enemy has yet to reveal itself. I just revealed it. This is the trilogy of tariff terror. Watchdog on wallstreet.com.