The Economy Looks Strong—Until You Read the Fine Print
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All right, we’re going to take a deep dive into some of latest economic numbers. Now, you know that phrase, never judge a book by its cover. Well, the same thing holds true for economic numbers, the stuff that the government publishes. One of the reasons why I no longer no longer participate in the Brady Bunch boxes on television when they put out the jobs numbers is because it’s quite frankly, it’s nonsensical. It’s not a deep dive.
It’s basically, what number did you guess? And what number are we at? And again, the numbers don’t oftentimes add up and they don’t give a good take of what’s going on. I to start off by talking about the labor market. We saw unemployment drop to 4.4%. You know, that’s good. know, that’s fantastic. know, great. More people entering the workforce. However, you take a look.
at the jobs that are being created right now? Not much, not much. And basically, where are those jobs been concentrated for the most part in regards to quite honestly, healthcare. Job growth is low. So we got an economy where the jobs picture is, you wanna call it this way, it’s basically a low fire, but also
a low higher jobs market. It’s again, very, very difficult right now for people who are looking for work to go out and find it. With that being said, companies aren’t having mass layoffs, even though we’re still seeing the trickle. The layoffs, without a doubt, have been more focused, obviously, some larger numbers in regards to some of the big companies. But overall, it’s a lot of mom and pop shops out there.
that are laying people off. Now, let’s take a look at the trade imbalances. That was a big one. The folks on CNBC and certain people of a certain political persuasion were jumping up and down talking about the trade numbers and the trade deficit is way down. And we haven’t seen numbers like this since the 1970s. And this is fantastic. And this means tariffs are working. Not really.
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Not really, yeah, the trade deficit is down. But if you actually take a look at the numbers, and I’m not taking candy people, you’re just poo pooing, you hate Trump, Trump derangement syndrome. No, I’m just telling you what it is, okay? When you take gold shipments out of the equation, that’s right, physical gold shipments out of the equation,
US goods trade deficit in the first 10 months of 2025 was up 11 % from the prior year. So you eliminate gold from the equation, the trade deficit has gone up. Now, GDP, GDP is another one. And again, I never really buy into GDP numbers. Again, I have a completely different take than the wizards of smart on the various different programs out there is that, well,
my client base is quite dynamic and it’s national, global for that matter. So I’m talking to people from all walks of life on a regular basis from a myriad of different businesses in different fields, which quite frankly people say that’s anecdotal really. I think I can give a much better take than anything the government’s gonna say in regards to where we’re at. Now GDP 4.3 % third quarter, okay. Why? Well,
You take a look inside the numbers massive savings rate drawdown And again import volumes came down meaning what we’re buying Less stuff and if you take that out the economy expanded at a annualized pace of 1 % Now the Atlanta Fed has got a they’re saying plus 5 % for the fourth quarter
And that’s quite frankly, again, throw gold into the equation. That is due to gold exports. Again, the GDP report does not get into the fact that personable disposable incomes haven’t really done much. So again, you have to take a deeper dive into the numbers to see what’s going on. And I always recommend people, quite honestly, be your own do it yourself, economists, observe.
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Watch. See what’s going on. Watch little things that are around you. Quite often, like I said, you’re going to do a much better job than the wizards of smart at the government or the Fed. Watchdogonwallstreet.com.
