Wall Street’s IPO Machine Is Trying to Sell You a $15 Billion Ring. Don’t Fall for It.
They Blamed the Market. I’m Blaming the Pitch.
Oura Ring was supposed to go public last month. It didn’t. And the people who were supposed to get rich selling it to you immediately reached for their favorite excuse: volatile markets, investor uncertainty, timing issues.
No. Stop. That is not what happened.
What happened is they tried to sell a smart ring company at a $15 billion valuation by calling it a “technology and data platform,” and not enough people were stupid enough to buy it at that price. That is the whole story. The market didn’t fail. The pitch failed. There is a difference, and Wall Street counts on you not knowing it.
I’ve been on the IPO blacklist for years because I sell immediately when something races to an absurd price. The underwriters don’t like that. They want long-term holders who will absorb the loss when the thing comes back to earth. I’m not interested in playing that role, and neither should you be.
This Story Is Older Than You Think
In the 1990s, I watched a Goldman Sachs kid take public a company that delivered Blockbuster videos and Ben and Jerry’s ice cream to your door, with VHS returns at Starbucks. It was the talk of the room. Everyone thought it was brilliant. I thought it was one of the most ridiculous things I had ever seen, and I said so. The business could never make money. The structure made no sense. But the story was great, and in that environment, story was currency.
Then came Peloton. An exercise bike with an iPad attached to it, valued like it was going to cure cancer. During COVID, with SPACs running wild and financial media hyping everything that moved, retail investors piled in. Then reality showed up.
The pattern is always the same:
- Wall Street creates a narrative that reframes a simple product as a revolutionary platform
- Financial media amplifies it without asking hard questions
- Retail investors get invited to the party right as the insiders are heading for the exit
- The valuation collapses and everyone acts surprised
- Nobody who sold you the story faces any consequences
“Cool and Neato” Is Not an Investment Strategy
I’ve used this phrase for 30 years and it still applies. Lots of things are cool and neato. Plenty of them are completely worthless as investments at the price you’re being asked to pay.
The Oura Ring is a fine product. I’m not here to trash the ring. I’m here to tell you that a ring company calling itself a technology and data platform and demanding a $15 billion price tag is not a misunderstood gem. It is a pitch. It is a sales job. And the fact that the market rejected it this time does not mean the next version of this story won’t find buyers.
It always finds buyers eventually. That’s what Wall Street is counting on.
What Protects You
One question cuts through almost all of this noise: can this business actually make money, and is what I’m paying reasonable given that reality?
If the answer requires you to accept a story instead of a financial reality, walk away. If the valuation only makes sense in a world where everything goes perfectly forever, walk away. If the excitement around something is loudest on television and social media right before the IPO, absolutely walk away.
They want your money. They have lawyers, bankers, PR firms, and financial media relationships all working together to get it. Your only defense is skepticism and the willingness to say no to things that don’t make sense, no matter how cool and neato they look.